The Patriots Must Return to Championship Form in Oakland

Devin McCourty is seen celebrating an interception last season. In 2011, McCourty has struggled through the first three games.

The New England Patriots have to enter the Black Hole on Sunday to square off against the Oakland Raiders. Currently, the Patriots have the top offense in the NFL, but they are 32^nd in total defense.

They blew a 21-0 lead in Buffalo last week as the Bills won 34-31 for the first time in eight seasons against the Patriots.

Like the Bills, the Raiders have been the laughingstock of the league for the past several years, but they appear to be turning the corner in 2011. Oakland won four out of their last five games in 2010. They are 2-1 through the first three weeks of this season. Their one loss was by 3 points in Buffalo. The Raiders overcame the New York Jets last week, 34-24 and they gained 234 yards on the ground against the vaunted Jets defense.

The Raiders have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Darren McFadden. McFadden, who had 171 yards rushing in the win over the Jets, is leading the league in rushing yards with 393. He also has scored three touchdowns.

The Patriots need to focus on turning around the defense and showing why they are a contender for the Super Bowl.

Here are the key matchups for Sunday:

1. McFadden and the Raiders’ running attack versus the Patriots’ front seven.

The Raiders have a stable of running backs, but they primarily use McFadden and Michael Bush. Both of these running backs are big and they bring speed. McFadden, who is 6-2, 210 pounds, but he can run between the tackles, he can run outside, and he is explosive. He has practiced all week with a groin injury, which will bear observations on whether that will be a hindrance on Sunday. Bush (6-1, 245 pounds) is mainly used in goal-line situations, but he can catch the ball out of the backfield and can still break off long runs. The longest run for Bush is 22 yards this season. The Raiders also use receivers for end-around and reverse plays. Rookie receiver Denarius Moore has two carries for 48 yards and one touchdown. Their offensive line is physical and bruising. Vince Wilfork has gained the upper hand in his matchups with center Samson Satele,. Satele is a former Miami Dolphin and he started all 32 games for the Dolphins from 2007-’08. The Patriots defense has only allowed 275 rushing yards total. Ryan Matthews of the San Diego Chargers had over 5 yards per carry and Fred Jackson gained 74 yards on just 12 carries. While teams are not getting too many yards, opposing running backs are gaining a significant amount of yards when they run the ball. After the Patriots signed Gerard Warren earlier this week and with Albert Haynesworth being held out of practice because of a back injury, it will be interesting to see whether the Patriots line up in a 3-4 formation to start the game. They could play Warren, Wilfork, and Shaun Ellis on the line. The linebackers will be Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes on the inside with Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich manning the edge positions.

2. Raiders’ passing game versus Patriots’ secondary.

Until the Patriots defensive backs can prove they play stingy and not allow big plays, opposing quarterbacks will continue to air the ball out. Devin McCourty has been enduring a sophomore slump. He has been thrown at 36 times and receivers have caught 24 passes. There have been 3 touchdowns given up by McCourty through 3 games. Last season, he allowed only five touchdown passes. In the contest versus the Buffalo Bills, there were several missed tackles, especially by Josh Barrett on Fred Jackson’s 41-yard catch that set up Rian Lindell’s game-winning field goal. Sergio Brown was called for pass interference on an interception in the end zone. This allowed Jackson to take the ball in from a yard out to even the score at 24. With the red zone being a key statistic, the Patriots defense has even been poor in these areas. They are 23^rd in the NFL allowing opponents to score eight times in 14 attempts.. The Patriots have given up a league-leading 20 plays of 20-plus yards. This factors into what the Raiders like to do on offense besides run the ball. They like to attack vertically through the air. Quarterback Jason Campbell is completing close to 66 percent of his passes. Moore, a fifth round pick out of Tennessee, has 9 catches for 180 yards. Derek Hagan is averaging 12.3 yards per reception. They use their running backs with McFadden being their leading receiver with 11 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Kevin Boss has given the Patriots fits in the past when he played for the New York Giants. The Patriots will need Patrick Chung to come back and McCourty to shake off the early season cobwebs or the Patriots passing defense will continue to be incapable of stopping a nose bleed. The pass rush needs to improve. The Raiders have only let up 2 sacks on Campbell. The Patriots need to get pressure on Campbell because he has not handled collapsing pockets well in the past.

3. Patriots’ running backs versus the Raiders’ defense.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis failed to show up in last week’s battle. He was stopped at the goal line on several occasions. While the Patriots offense is not run through Green-Ellis, he still needs to be able to get the tough yards in big situations. Green-Ellis only ran for 18 yards on 10 carries against a Bills defense, who ranked 21^st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. This is not acceptable. He needs to have his typical 70-80 yards on 15 touches for the Patriots to be successful. Stevan Ridley was being used later in the game, which could signify the Patriots were unhappy with Green-Ellis’s production. The Raiders are not a very good defensive team, but their defensive line is their strength. Old friend Richard Seymour anchors that defensive line even though the Raiders rotate eight linemen. Seymour continues to play well despite being 32 years old.

4. Patriots’ offensive line versus Raiders’ defensive front.

The Raiders rely on their pass rush on passing downs. They are a feast-or-famine defense. If their rushers do not provide pressure, they could be in trouble. Defensive tackles Seymour(2.5 sacks) and Tommy Kelly (1.5 sacks) push the pocket from inside. Dan Connolly, Logan Mankins, and Brian Waters must prevent Seymour and Kelly from creating chaos inside the pocket. Meanwhile, tackles Matt Light and Nate Solder could have their hands full keeping defensive ends Matt Shaughnessy and Jarvis Moss, and outside linebacker Kamerion Wimbley off Tom Brady’s back. The offensive line needs to be able to give Brady time to get the ball to his receivers because the Raiders’ defensive backfield is banged up. Free safety Michael Huff has a concussion and cornerback Chris Johnson is suffering from a hamstring injury. The Raiders let Ryan Fitzpatrick (264 yards) and Mark Sanchez (369) toss the ball all over their defense. Aaron Hernandez is out again with a sprained MCL in his knee. The Patriots need other receivers besides Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski to step up. Welker and Gronkowski caught 23 of the 30 passes completed by Brady in the loss to the Bills.

5.  Special Teams will be crucial again.

The Raiders have two of the top specialists in kicker Sebastian Janikowski and punter Shane Lechler. Jannikowski kicked a 63-yard field goal in Denver in the season opening conquest of the Broncos. In the victory over the Jets, Jannikowski booted a 54-yard kick before halftime. Lechler is a Pro Bowl punter. Both of these players were drafted by the Raiders in 2000. Jannikowski was a first round pick and the Raiders selected Lechler in the 5^th round. Whenever the Raiders cross the 50-yard line, they are in field goal range. If this is a close game, the Patriots need to avoid overtime because they don’t want to lose the coin toss against the Raiders.

Prediction: Patriots knock off the Raiders 41-38. The defense struggles, but Brady and Co. is able to outscore the Raiders’ offense.